Subject: Re: Fraction of transit ASes going down? [Re: [RAM] TIDR using the IDENTIFIERS attribute]

From: [email-masked]
Date: Wed, 25 Apr 2007 15:10:34 +0200

Pierre,

See my comments below.

Pierre Francois <[email-masked]> wrote on 25/04/2007 13:35:06:
> 
> Juan-Jose,
> 
> A simple question for you :
> 
> Where does the growth happen with the years ?
> I.e., how does this transit ratio evolve during the life of the internet 
?
> + Same question with finer granularity than just transit vs. leaf.,  if 
> possible.
> 
> I would like to know wether we're roughly just getting new leaves or 
> close-to-be leaves, or if the growth is more homogeneous
> in the hierarchy.

When trying to find out the fraction of transit AS-es I just
used the RIS Statistics Report provided by RIPE. I didn't
use any script at all. I simply made a number of calculations
using the last statistics reports and found 1/6 as the 
approximate value. I don't understand why this value differs
from the one calculated by Ricardo and Simon. Any clue?.

Therefore I cannot answer your questions properly. I think
it would be very interesting if we could have a figure showing
the evolution of this fraction. And I also suggested that it
is probable that its value would decrease because of the
number of companies requesting a public AS number to get
multihomed. This is just a personal conjecture that I would
like to see contrasted with the real Internet.

Regards,
Juanjo
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---

From: Marshall Eubanks <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 25 Apr 2007 09:32:32 -0400

Hello;

On Apr 25, 2007, at 9:10 AM, [email-masked] wrote:

> > I.e., how does this transit ratio evolve during the life of the  
> internet ?

I do not know, but if I had to guess I would guess this is the effect  
of route aggregation, which will tend
to "bury" leaf asn's.

I get 12% (1/6 is 16.6%) from my BGP data, so this is even less. The  
following
histogram for 6:00 AM today might be interesting.

All of this data is available going back to 2001; what exactly do you  
think it would
useful to plot ?

Regards
Marshall

Histogram of the number of AS Supported Out of  24857

(In my terminology, an ASN
"supports" every ASN that can be seen in transit through it; so the  
ASN with support = 1 are
leaf ASNs.)

Number ASN Supporting      1 ASN =  21989  or 88.462 %
Number ASN Supporting      2 ASN =   1210  or  4.868 %
Number ASN Supporting      3 ASN =    431  or  1.734 %
Number ASN Supporting      4 ASN =    234  or  0.941 %
Number ASN Supporting      5 ASN =    161  or  0.648 %
Number ASN Supporting      6 ASN =    108  or  0.434 %
Number ASN Supporting      7 ASN =     79  or  0.318 %
Number ASN Supporting      8 ASN =     66  or  0.266 %
Number ASN Supporting      9 ASN =     53  or  0.213 %
Number ASN Supporting     10 ASN =     32  or  0.129 %
Number ASN Supporting     11 ASN =     38  or  0.153 %
Number ASN Supporting     12 ASN =     32  or  0.129 %
Number ASN Supporting     13 ASN =     23  or  0.093 %
Number ASN Supporting     14 ASN =     27  or  0.109 %
Number ASN Supporting     15 ASN =     17  or  0.068 %
Number ASN Supporting     16 ASN =     24  or  0.097 %
Number ASN Supporting     17 ASN =     14  or  0.056 %
Number ASN Supporting     18 ASN =     15  or  0.060 %
Number ASN Supporting     19 ASN =      9  or  0.036 %
Number ASN Supporting     20 ASN =     10  or  0.040 %
Number ASN Supporting     21 ASN =     15  or  0.060 %
Number ASN Supporting     22 ASN =      7  or  0.028 %
Number ASN Supporting     23 ASN =     10  or  0.040 %
Number ASN Supporting     24 ASN =      7  or  0.028 %
Number ASN Supporting     25 ASN =      8  or  0.032 %
Number ASN Supporting     26 ASN =      3  or  0.012 %
Number ASN Supporting     27 ASN =      9  or  0.036 %
Number ASN Supporting     28 ASN =      4  or  0.016 %
Number ASN Supporting     29 ASN =      7  or  0.028 %
Number ASN Supporting     30 ASN =      9  or  0.036 %
Number ASN Supporting     31 ASN =      6  or  0.024 %
Number ASN Supporting     32 ASN =      8  or  0.032 %
Number ASN Supporting     33 ASN =      7  or  0.028 %
Number ASN Supporting     34 ASN =      5  or  0.020 %
Number ASN Supporting     35 ASN =      3  or  0.012 %
Number ASN Supporting     36 ASN =      5  or  0.020 %
Number ASN Supporting     37 ASN =      7  or  0.028 %
Number ASN Supporting     38 ASN =      3  or  0.012 %
Number ASN Supporting     40 ASN =      6  or  0.024 %
Number ASN Supporting     41 ASN =      5  or  0.020 %
Number ASN Supporting     42 ASN =      2  or  0.008 %
Number ASN Supporting     43 ASN =      2  or  0.008 %
Number ASN Supporting     44 ASN =      2  or  0.008 %
Number ASN Supporting     45 ASN =      3  or  0.012 %
Number ASN Supporting     46 ASN =      2  or  0.008 %
Number ASN Supporting     47 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting     48 ASN =      6  or  0.024 %
Number ASN Supporting     49 ASN =      6  or  0.024 %
Number ASN Supporting     51 ASN =      2  or  0.008 %
Number ASN Supporting     52 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting     53 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting     54 ASN =      2  or  0.008 %
Number ASN Supporting     55 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting     57 ASN =      3  or  0.012 %
Number ASN Supporting     58 ASN =      2  or  0.008 %
Number ASN Supporting     59 ASN =      2  or  0.008 %
Number ASN Supporting     61 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting     64 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting     65 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting     66 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting     67 ASN =      3  or  0.012 %
Number ASN Supporting     68 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting     71 ASN =      2  or  0.008 %
Number ASN Supporting     72 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting     73 ASN =      2  or  0.008 %
Number ASN Supporting     75 ASN =      2  or  0.008 %
Number ASN Supporting     79 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting     81 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting     83 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting     85 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting     87 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting     89 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting     90 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting     92 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting     94 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting     98 ASN =      2  or  0.008 %
Number ASN Supporting     99 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    101 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    102 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    103 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    105 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    107 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    110 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    114 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    118 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    131 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    132 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    133 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    134 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    142 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    154 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    155 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    158 ASN =      2  or  0.008 %
Number ASN Supporting    160 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    163 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    169 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    170 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    176 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    186 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    189 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    197 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    201 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    204 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    216 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    219 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    232 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    237 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    239 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    241 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    253 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    254 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    267 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    273 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    297 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    300 ASN =      2  or  0.008 %
Number ASN Supporting    315 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    322 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    349 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    389 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    413 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    423 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    425 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    440 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    584 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    834 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    888 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    945 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting    947 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting   1054 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %
Number ASN Supporting   1896 ASN =      1  or  0.004 %

---

From: Pierre Francois <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 25 Apr 2007 16:27:55 +0200

> of route aggregation, which will tend
If the question is destined to me :

I would "cluster" the histogramm you provide :
group 1 : Number of ASN supporting 1 ASN
group 2 : Number of ASN supporting 2 ASN
group 3 : Number of ASN supporting 3 ASN
group 4 : Number of ASN supporting ]3,10] ASN,
group 5 : Number of ASN supporting ]10, 100] ASN,
group 6 : Number of ASN supporting > 100  ASN,

Then look at how these values evolve since 2001. I have no clue on which 
clustering would reveal interesting trends, but this could
be worth the investigation. (would have been good to have it just a bit 
earlier than 2001 ;-)  )

btw, Sorry to have messed the thread

Pierre