Subject: [NEXTEL-1] Andy Seybold's Commentary4Mobility Congress Loves Wi-Fi

From: Marcel <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 29 Jan 2003 15:22:14 -0500

Andy Seybold's
Commentary4Mobility

January 20, 2003

Congress Loves Wi-Fi 

The computer industry loves Wi-Fi, as evidenced by its incorporation into almost every new
notebook computer and a few PDAs being shipped in 2003. The Wi-Fi community loves Wi-Fi
since its members are going to get rich selling Wi-Fi equipment for homes, offices and
hotspots, and now it turns out that the U.S. Congress loves Wi-Fi. 

Several initiatives have been introduced to increase the amount of spectrum that is
available for unlicensed wireless usage--and unlicensed obviously means Wi-Fi to the folks
on the hill. Included in these proposals are one for more spectrum in the 5-GHz band where
there is already a lot of available spectrum, and the latest one is to turn "unused" TV
spectrum into unlicensed spectrum on a shared basis. 

Never mind that Senator McCain and others in Congress as well as the FCC have stated that
one of their priorities is to come up with a spectrum PLAN that addresses ALL of the
spectrum use issues. Never mind that there is some unlicensed spectrum available in the
PCS band that is just sitting there unused. And never mind that Wi-Fi is supposed to be
low-level and low-coverage so that it can be used in many locations. 

One Senator says that Wi-Fi "breathes new life into broadband" and can be its salvation
since it is truly a last mile technology that is inexpensive to deploy and, with the help
of Congress, can become ubiquitous. The honorable Senator Boxer from the State of
California is promoting her own bill to release more spectrum for unlicensed use because
doing so will give the wireless and computing communities a new lease on life and restart
the technology sector. 

Wi-Fi has become the "next big thing" and everyone wants a piece of it, hopping on the
bandwagon without slowing down long enough to step back and look at the implications or
assessing the demand. Wi-Fi will be everywhere they say. It will: 

provide free access to the Internet  
paid access to the Internet that will make lots of folks rich  
make wide-area wireless data systems obsolete  
complement wide-area wireless  
become the true last-mile technology  
permit free and easy long distance calls with voice over IP and circumvent the existing
long distance companies  

I am always fearful of the results when Congress gets involved with a technology issue.
These folks tend to leap into things without understanding the issues, introduce a bill
and then listen to the loudest (read most generous) voices and pass it. There is already a
movement underway to examine the entire spectrum plan (lack thereof) and try to fix it. I
think we should leave what we have alone until we see the proposal. 

I also fear that we could end up with Wi-Fi everywhere--not physically everywhere as has
been promised, but everywhere as in all over the spectrum: 2.4 GHz, 5 GHz, shared TV
channels, 100 MHz, 300 MHz, 400 MHz, 500 MHz, 600 MHz, 700 MHz and perhaps PCS unlicensed
spectrum and unlicensed spectrum in the 900-MHz range and more. 

Everyone is reacting to this new Wi-Fi feeding frenzy. They want to get in on it and
support it because we will all become Wi-Fi users in the future--not just notebook and PDA
users but all of us. Otherwise, why would everyone be so excited about a technology that
was designed and first implemented to serve notebook computer users who represent a small
portion of the population? 

Will Wi-Fi really be everywhere? Will it really be used everywhere? By everyone? Will it
really make lots of technology folks rich? In most cases, Wi-Fi is a replacement for
wires. It is way to get to the Internet, to have a cup of coffee in a Starbucks and check
our email (if we want to) and to send video and audio around a home without using wires.
It will provide us with some freedom we have not had before, but is it really the next big
thing or just a convenient way to send and receive data, and perhaps voice in the future
undermining the companies that provide the wires needed to make Wi-Fi work? 

Before we change the laws and allocate more spectrum for Wi-Fi, before we set up potential
interference between TV viewers and Wi-Fi users, before we allocate more spectrum without
making sure what has been allocated is already in use, let's see how this whole Wi-Fi
thing develops, how big the market really is and how much folks are willing to pay to
connect wirelessly. Let's be real about Wi-Fi and the number of customers it will attract
at what price point. 

When the FCC and Congress get rolling, the financial community gets a whiff of a "big
thing" and the technology industry gets onboard we have a freight train coming down the
tracks at a high rate of speed. There are only two things that can happen to this train:
It can derail and do a lot of damage as it leaves the tracks, taking a lot of folks with
it (as with the dot-coms) or it can continue on course and become a speck on the horizon
as it fades into the sunset. My hope for this new year is for a little less hype and a
little more rational thinking and behavior putting Wi-Fi in perspective and slowing down
the feeding frenzy.

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