Subject: [NEXTEL-1] SCA gets a new life- 16 January 2003

From: Marcel <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 16 Jan 2003 15:16:58 -0500

Andy S.

                         See Spot Run, See SPOT Fall On Its Face!

Dj vu All Over Again

In Bill Gate's speech at CES about "smart living for the digital age" he spent some time
talking about SPOT (Smart Personal Objects Technology) and the wrist watches that will
include SPOT. I am reminded of when, years ago, Microsoft announced its plans to put
Windows in all manner of office device--office phones, copiers, fax machines, etc.

The wireless technology will make use of FM broadcast sub-carriers. These sub-carriers are
part of a typical FM broadcast system and have been used for years by companies such as
Musack to deliver audio content and by others to deliver data content. The use of
sub-carriers, or SCA communications channels, has been authorized since the 1950s.

My involvement with SCA communications dates back to experiments in remote learning in the
early 1970s and the three other attempts by computer companies to use SCA communications
for delivering data. These three aborted attempts were made by Seiko, then the Epson
division of Seiko and finally by Lotus prior to its being acquired by IBM. Each of these
campaigns was launched with great fanfare and each failed for two reasons: The data being
delivered was "news, weather and sports," which had no perceived value to most potential
customers, and FM broadcast stations do not provide good enough signals indoors. (Most SCA
communications services today are to fixed locations with outside antennas.)

Oh, I almost forgot the system that was being rolled out by a company in Virginia in the
late 80s to provide stock quotes to handheld devices that could then be attached to a
phone so customers could place orders to buy or sell.

Let's look at Microsoft's foray into the world of SCA communications:

    1) It will use the SCA communications system
    2) It will be received by a watch with a small, inefficient antenna
    3) It will deliver news, weather and sports

Sounds to me like this ought to be big! (Not). Microsoft has spent a lot of time and
effort (and probably money) putting together its Directband system of FM stations to turn
your watch into a smart device. I wonder if it was able to purchase the thousands of
watches that Seiko and Lotus must have stored in warehouses somewhere

Real soon now (Fall, 2003) we will have a series of watches from Fossil and others,
service in 100-plus markets in the U.S. and Canada, and the ability to receive up-to-date
news, traffic, weather and sports information. There is no indication either in the
announcement or on the Web site (Microsoft.com/spot) of the monthly cost of these
services. What is on the site is a set of conceptual services and watches so you can get
an idea about these products that are "subject to change without notice."

So here we go again. Three or more companies already launched this type of product and
service and they all failed at it. They found that what they were offering was of little
if any value to their potential customers, it cost too much and FM broadcast coverage was
spotty (no pun intended) at best. They also found out that not that many folks will wear a
big gadget watch or that many of the men who are willing to wear one don't want to wear
the same watch every day.

 Can Microsoft be successful where others have failed? Can the might of Microsoft and the
 "coolness" of the products and services overcome the problems with the wireless coverage
   and the other issues? My bet is no. Not even Microsoft can make this type of device,
  service and wireless delivery fly. History is destined to repeat itself. As Yogi Berra
                             said, "Its Dj vu all over again!"