Subject: [NEXTEL-1] Schaeffer's Market Observation Features NXTL

From: Marcel <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 13 Jan 2003 16:09:53 -0500

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Schaeffer's Market Observation Features NXTL, SEBL, and YHOO

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Schaeffer's Investment Research Inc. logo. (PRNewsFoto)[TK]

CINCINNATI, OH USA 07/25/2002

CINCINNATI, Jan. 13 /PRNewswire/ -- Today's Market Observation features
Nextel Communications (Nasdaq: NXTL), Siebel Systems (Nasdaq: SEBL), and
Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO). Schaeffer's Market Observations are market-based
reports that provide insight and analysis from a unique and unbiased
perspective. Market Observations are published on http://www.SchaeffersResearch.com -
the home of Bernie Schaeffer and Schaeffer's Investment Research. To receive a
free email notification each time a new commentary is written about one of the
featured stocks or any of your favorite stocks, click on the following link:
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/addinfo .
(Photo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20020725/SCHAEFFERLOGO )

Reader Requested Charts

If you missed the introduction to this series, click on the links below.

Click on the following link for Part I:
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/wire?ID=6625 .

Click on the following link for Part II:
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/wire?ID=6645 .

As usual, let me quickly reiterate a few key points about these "reader
request" observations before we begin:

1. I cannot provide individual advice.
2. The charts reflect nothing other than my opinion.
3. Time constraints limit my ability to provide individual responses, but
I do read all of the e-mails I receive.

Nextel Communications (Nasdaq: NXTL) - The shares have had an impressive
run to say the least. In today's action, the stock is trading just above its
November highs (see the green arrow in the chart). The move from July has
given us enough data to start an uptrending regression channel. It's
interesting to note that the upper and lower channel rails line up with
historical chart support and resistance. The gray zone above is rather wide,
but there's a lot going on there. It wouldn't surprise me to see the shares
slow down a bit going forward. But as long as the lower rail (near 11.50)
isn't violated, the uptrend remains intact. It's also worth mentioning that
the 15 level is an important strike for call options on the stock since both
the January and February series have large build-ups there. Call activity
drops off above 15.
Click on the following link to see the Weekly Chart of NXTL since January
2001: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/wire?ID=6740 .

Siebel Systems (Nasdaq: SEBL) - We need two charts to really understand
this stock. The first is a longer-term weekly chart that shows it locked in
an intermediate-term downtrending channel (shown in blue). However, the width
of this channel allows for some pretty spectacular moves. It's also worth
noting that the slope of this channel is such that the lower rail is now below
zero, rendering it useless as support. This means that, at some point, the
upper rail will also converge on zero (so as long as the stock continues to
trade). In other words, it will have to break out from this channel. No
trend lasts forever! For now though, that upper rail is still acting as
potential resistance.
It's the daily chart, however, that shows the real action. Here we can
see a short-term uptrending channel (shown in red). The shares are near the
upper rail of this channel which should act as resistance. The upper rail is
also lined up with the gray resistance zone which has acted as resistance
since the shares gapped lower in July. This will be an interesting test
because this resistance looks pretty solid. A break above this mark would be
a telling sign to the underlying strength of the stock. The lower rail is
near seven and the stock would need to stay above that for this short-term
trend to remain unbroken.
Click on the following link to see the Weekly Chart of SEBL since May
2001: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/wire?ID=6740 .
Click on the following link to see the Daily Chart of SEBL since May 2002:
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/wire?ID=6740 .

Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO) - When we last looked at YHOO, I said "a check of
the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio shows that pessimism has
been building, which I would call constructive for the bulls. But the upper
rail will have to be penetrated for the rally to continue." A look at today's
chart shows that, after several weeks of consolidation, the bulls were able to
overtake this resistance last week. The stock is currently near 20, which
happens to be the home of roughly 20,000 calls. This is not insurmountable,
as the stock just finished pushing through more than 30,000 call contracts at
the 17.50 strike. But YHOO may slow down as we head into expiration on
Friday. When we look to February, we see that 20 is the site of peak calls
with a comparatively small 4,000 contracts. A pullback towards the upper rail
seems reasonable, but if the shares break below 18 they would be back inside
the channel. For now, the downtrend appears broken.
Click on the following link to see the Weekly Chart of YHOO since March
2001: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/wire?ID=6740 .

About Schaeffer's Investment Research (http://www.SchaeffersResearch.com )
Schaeffer's Investment Research, founded by Bernie Schaeffer in 1981, is a
diversified financial information and trading resources company with
subscribers in over 110 countries. It publishes Bernie Schaeffer's Option
Advisor, the nation's leading subscription newsletter devoted to options, as
well as many other educational, bulletin and alert services. The firm's
website, http://www.SchaeffersResearch.com , is recognized as one of the leading
information sources for stock and options traders and was cited as the top
options website by both Forbes and Barron's.

Contact: Tom Godich of Schaeffer's, +1-513-589-3800,
[email-masked]

SOURCE Schaeffer's Investment Research

Web Site: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com

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