Subject: [NEXTEL-1] FW: [wakeares] SKYWARN DISCUSSION HURRTRAK EM/Pro 2003: Hurricane FABIAN - 08/29/2003 18:00 EDT

From: "Todd Ellis" <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 29 Aug 2003 19:44:29 -0400

-----Original Message-----
From: Ronald Reams [mailto:[email-masked]] 
Sent: Friday, August 29, 2003 6:28 PM
To: Wake ARES/RACES
Subject: [wakeares] SKYWARN DISCUSSION HURRTRAK EM/Pro 2003: Hurricane
FABIAN - 08/29/2003 18:00 EDT
Importance: High

THIS IS THE OFFICAL TPC  FORECAST TRACK POSITION FOR FABIAN ON WED SEPT 3 AT
1400 EDT.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A  WEAKNESS IN SUBTROPICAL  RIDGE WILL ALLOW FABIAN
TO MAKE A LAST MIN. TURN TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE SE USA
COAST.
FYI CLIMATOLOGY IS ON OUR SIDE, AS ONLY 8 OUT OF 35 STORMS THAT PASSED
WITHIN 60NM OF FABIAN'S
CURRENT POSITION HAVE HIT THE SE US COAST. FRAN IN 1996 BEING ONE :(
RICK THARRINGTON
NCSPA WC
KD4JRX ILM SKYWARN EC
AAA9WC ARMY MARS WC

RICK THARRINGTON  KD4JRX  ILM SKYWARN  EC

********************************************

HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2003

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY. THERE IS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CDO. THE OUTFLOW
HAS ALSO IMPROVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT FABIAN HAS REACHED HURRICANE STATUS WITH 65
KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW BY THE SHIPS MODEL BUT WATER
VAPOR IMAGES STILL SHOW A PERSISTENT BAND OF UPPER-LEVEL
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS WOULD IMPEDE SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...ASSUMING THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE
...AS THE MODELS INDICATE...AND TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THAT THE
GFDL MAKES FABIAN A 104-KNOT HURRICANE...STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS.
A RATHER STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE ANCHORED BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WOULD
PROVIDE A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.
THEREAFTER...THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AS A LARGE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE EASTERN UNITED STATES RESULTING IN A TRACK
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE. ONLY THE BAM MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD SHOWING A
WESTWARD TRACK. THIS IS PROBABLY BECAUSE THE GFS IS SHOWING A MORE
UNIFORM DEEP-LAYER WESTWARD FLOW THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.

FORECASTER AVILA/BERG

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/2100Z 15.7N  45.2W    65 KT
12HR VT     30/0600Z 16.5N  47.5W    70 KT
24HR VT     30/1800Z 17.0N  50.0W    75 KT
36HR VT     31/0600Z 18.0N  52.5W    80 KT
48HR VT     31/1800Z 18.5N  55.0W    85 KT
72HR VT     01/1800Z 19.5N  58.0W    90 KT
96HR VT     02/1800Z 20.5N  61.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     03/1800Z 22.0N  65.0W    90 KT

********************************************

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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