Subject: [NEXTEL-1] New technology, economics helping push acceptance of AMR

From: [email-masked]
Date: Fri, 24 Oct 2003 12:59:18 -0400

New technology, economics helping push acceptance of AMR
Source: Pipeline & Gas Journal
Publication date: 2003-09-01
Arrival time: 2003-10-24

In the book, Blur: The Speed of Change in the Connected Economy, by
Stanley Davis, he postulates that connectedness will rapidly blur the lines
between products and services. This is true today and its veracity is even
more apparent in the oil and gas pipeline business where prolific and viable
economic communications technologies are rapidly blurring the lines that
have traditionally separated distribution management and end-point
monitoring.

There has been an increase in interest among electric utilities that are
rapidly deploying automatic and remote metering technologies across the
spectrum of their customers to capture monthly consumption data and
time-of-use data. In many cases, their drivers are external sources. For
example, advanced metering may be a response to public utility
commission directives to offer time- based consumption pricing, or as part
of new tariff structures developed to drive consumption habits toward less
costly production and supply periods, or to take advantage of possible tax
credits that are being proposed by Congress in various iterations of energy
bills.

However, within the arena of end-point usage measurement and automatic
meter reading (AMR), an often overlooked fact is that - of the three
traditional utility services delivered to the marketplace - gas meters
currently account for the highest percentage of end points that are
remotely read. This is detailed by Howard Scott of Cognyst Consulting, a
recognized authority in the area of AMK unit shipments, as compiled in
his annual report (Figure 1).

Certainly, one could debate why the percentage of gas meters connected
to AMR systems is higher than either electric or water meters and what
the compelling economic rationale is that moved the gas delivery industry
to make the choice to move forward with remote monitoring. But, rather
than focus on the relative differences in percentages of the three utilities, it
is apparent that the real thrust of the initiatives undertaken today represent
more of a trend toward acceptance and endorsement of methodologies to
enable the reporting of this information and the value that flows to a myriad
of users with the ease of accessibility to such information.

What are some of the key drivers that are driving and blurring the
business? Major technological and economic factors and business rule
transformations are providing the catalyst for such initiatives.

Figure 1: Utilities with Highest AMR Penetration

Technological Changes

Classified in this area are more intelligent end devices, improved
communication services, robust databases, intuitive user tools and the
use of the thin client browser as a standard means to access data.

More Intelligent End Devices

It was not so long ago that remote unmanned programmable logic
controllers were the only devices suitable for the rigors of supervisory
control and data acquisition (SCADA). Because of the limited functional
capability of these devices, real-time communication networks were
required to link these end points to intelligent head-ends. This approach is
not dissimilar to dumb ASCII terminals connected via RS-232 links back to
a mainframe located in a secure glasshouse that was the pervasive means
of office computing just 20 years ago.

With this centralization of communications and control, the networking
architectures became very straightforward. Typically, it was one hub with
many spokes. However, because of the simplicity of these end devices,
much of the challenge of management soon was relegated to the master
station, necessitating that it map a network connection point and its string
of values to physical devices and logical elements. Simply put, that meant
that a data reconstruction method was needed to convert access line 1
data, data string 3, ASCII characters three to seven into a pressure gauge
in the West End measuring PSI normalized to 500.

Today, the advent of field-ruggedized, low-power, high- performance
microprocessors has forever changed this paradigm. When coupled with
long-life batteries and solar panels, these end-device computers are often
deployed in inaccessible areas to perform tasks such as summarizing,
totalizing and autonomously controlling very complex processes and often
only reporting exceptions and abnormalities. So now controller 15 can
report that a relief valve was tripped because the high-pressure threshold
was exceeded for five minutes and that it has been successfully executed
and returned to normal.

Many AMR and SCADA devices have more computing power than the
master stations of the last decade.

Improved Communications Services

Where once the only option for conwas a private wire service from the local
telephone company, options now exist for high-speed digital services that
are either wired or wireless.

Wired access services such as Frame Relay, fiber optics or even DSL
loops are common, and in many cases, are readily available and
affordable. Connectivity issues are being addressed by demands for
Internet access that are bringing benefits to low-end telemetry services.

A few short years ago, analog cellular services were among the few
choices for public wireless access. Even with pricing plans that had no
off-peak pricing, a dollar-a-minute for 9600 baud access opened a wide
variety of remote service access possibilities. Now, with third-generation
high-speed packet offered by all of the major wireless carriers, with
communication speeds approaching 130 Kbps and costing pennies per
kilobyte per month, the possibilities grow exponentially. The myriad of
wireless choices possible are shown in Figure 2.

Robust Databases

In the mid to late 1980s, as PCs made their way into the workplace, many
of the tools so common today were not even contemplated for the
desktop. Today, leading vendors such as Oracle have relational databases
specifically tailored for these uses. Whereas in the past, many file
structures were relegated to flat files or treed access structures such as
B-treive. These tools, primitive by today's standards, were used because
they optimized the performance of the system. Operating desktop units
maxed out at 100 MHz. Today, Pentium 4 processors with speeds of 2.5
GHz are readily available in most laptops.

Intuitive User Tools

Visit any preschool today and it is very likely that you will find computer
workstations with windows and pull-down menu bars. Children find it easy
to navigate around complex screens and templates without even knowing
how to read, let alone comprehend a 500-page user manual.

Figure 3: Moore's Original Law

Figure 2:

Graphics, pull-down bars and icons have rapidly replaced hours of
classroom training. Point, click and execute have displaced monotonic
instructors telling you to turn to page 43 of your manual. Systems have
become safeguarded from catastrophic fat fingers and eager enter keys.
Undo has replaced re-boot.

Thin Client Access

Web browsers are standard issue with virtually all computers. Even
without access to the Internet, HTML has become the standard for
information presentment. Links embedded into text, graphics that open to
text, drill down and back, threading and stream-of-thought are now the
ways that systems are being designed. Gone are the days of green
screens and system-specific operating functions.

Economic Changes

The following information was found on the Web site listed:
www.thocp.net/biographies/papers/moores_law.htm.

In 1965, Gordon Moore, then head of research and development at
Fairchild Semiconductor, prepared an article for the 35th anniversary of
Electronics Magazine. He discovered that from 1959- 65, the number of
components (for example, transistors) on a chip roughly doubled every
year. Figure 3, reproduced from Moore's article, shows his findings. This
trend suggested that processing power would rise exponentially and at a
fast rate, leading to a computing revolution.

Moore predicted: "Integrated circuits will lead to such wonders as home
computers - or at least terminals - connected to a central computer,
automatic controls for automobiles, and personal portable communications
equipment." This is a remarkable prediction, given that it was made in
1965.

With the increase in chip density, comes a corresponding decline in the
costs of computation. As these costs continued to decline exponentially
over a period of 30 years, the compound effect was powerful: when costs
are cut in half every two years, over a 30- year period they decline by a
factor of 215, turning a million- dollar processor into a $30 device. History
will prove that - although impossible to maintain the regression rate
predicted - Moore's law has set the threshold of expectation in the
computing industry.

Business Rule Changes

The most dramatic changes, however, continue to impact business rules.
While in some utilities, meter reading is still viewed as a substitution of
manual process business case effort, progressive firms have started to
embrace new rules of competitive business practices that state you must
increase the number of your customers, grow the value that your existing
customers provide, and retain your best customers, (Figure 4).

Albeit this is a simplistic approach common in many commercial
businesses. This strategy is now slowly making its way into the traditional
utility business.

While giving up non-profitable customers may not win support in a
regulated business structure, many compe\titive arenas are now open in
the United States. Cherry-picking and targeting key clients have become
more common as marketing departments face new business climes that
necessitate intimate usage information. This information can only be viably
gained through technologies and economic conditions favorable to remote
data acquisition, access and manipulation.

Figure 4:

The telephone company was among the first utilities to discover the
concept of growing the value of existing customers. Caller-ID, call waiting
and voice mail are all vertical offerings that sell more products to the
existing customer base. The balance of the triangle is best achieved when
products and services are equitably applied along each of the sides.

AMR will become that common denominator, whose growth value is
demonstrated to existing customers in terms of care and infonnalion, that
draws new customers through improved access to critical information, and
enables the retention ol key clients through customized packages.

Future Of AMR

While the growth trends indicate an upward ramp of end points monitored,
clearly a gray area of control will take place as retail consumption
information encroaches on areas traditionally served by SCADA systems.
In-house computing clusters will be replaced by desktop systems
accessing real-time information that may be provided by a third party.

Outsourcing may no longer be an unspeakable word in utilities. Looking
back, distributed generation in many eases was not even in the long-range
planning only a decade ago. These supply and consumption [joints clearly
blur the lines of metering and distribution.

by Ron Chebra, Comverge Inc., Mercerville, NJ

Author: Ron Chebra is director of Automatic Meter Reading Services for
Comverge Inc. and 6D, a technology firm based in Florbam Park, NJ. He is
the immediate past president of the Automatic Meter Redding Association
(AMRA), and, currently serves as chairman of its Strategic Leadership
Council and is a member of their executive committee and board of
directors.

http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=42942033&ID=cnniw&scategory=Telecommunications%3AWireless&

Publication date: 2003-09-01

------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
Buy Ink Cartridges or Refill Kits for your HP, Epson, Canon or Lexmark
Printer at MyInks.com. Free s/h on orders $50 or more to the US & Canada.
http://www.c1tracking.com/l.asp?cid=5511
http://us.click.yahoo.com/mOAaAA/3exGAA/qnsNAA/61FxlB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->

Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/