Subject: [NEXTEL-1] Re : Andy's commentary

From: [email-masked]
Date: Sun, 11 Apr 2004 13:34:59 -0400

-------- Original Message --------
From:	[email-masked]
Subject:	Re: Andy's commentary

Bob, the "who cares" is a huge problem, and cannot be dismissed with a wave of a hand (I hope that you're not that flippant with ALL laws!).  

Verizon wants the FCC to make Nextel pay for incumbent retunes.  Verizon can file all the papers they want, but unless/until Nextel is causing interference UNDER THE RULES, it ain't gonna happen. 

In short, ANY plan that has Nextel paying for incumbent retunes must be acceptable to Nextel.  You can wish and hope all you want for something different, but it's not possible. 

It's like Nextel's original White Paper, where Nextel proposed to move all 800 MHz Business and Industrial users to 900 MHz, with the incumbent paying all of their own costs!  We were incensed about that, and successfully fought it back.  As much as one may want to, revenge-wise, turning that table doesn't get us anywhere.

As to moving Nextel totally out of the band, while that might be attractive, there are numerous problems with that, not the least of which is reflected in Todd's post (which I won't re-state here).  In addition: (1) Nextel has more spectrum than there is at 1.9 GHz, what do you do about the delta in spectrum?;

(2) Verizon covets that same spectrum for themselves like there's no tomorrow; (3) it's got to be a deal that Nextel agrees to (see above); and (4) what happens to the spectrum at 800 MHz that Nextel left?  You think the FCC is gonna wave a hand and make it available to public safety?  No, we'll wind up with an auction, and wind up with "Son of Nextel" (Jack, your suggestion that it's "auctioned off to private users" is attractive, but won't happen).  This is my biggest concern with leaving a huge swath of empty spectrum.  Sure, we can put in a bunch of rules to prevent interference that don't exist now, but we'll be right back to interleaved spectrum.  We've got to get away from that.

In any event, THIS continues to be a good discussion to have.  You never know when someone will hit upon a good concept.  However, remember that anything one proposes needs to be looked out from every side of the table.
Alan

In a message dated 4/10/2004 11:19:13 PM Eastern Standard Time, [email-masked] writes:
As far as whether or not Nextel and Cellular are "officially" interfering, who cares? You know they are, they know they are..everyone knows they are.
Despite the lack of definitive rules, this is one time that a common sense interpretation of the law's intent should prevail and not the letter of the law. We do still have the "intent of law" to work with don't we?

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From: [email-masked]
Date: Tue, 13 Apr 2004 14:44:42 -0400

-------- Original Message --------
From: "sparkie_rf" <[email-masked]>
Subject: Re:  : Andy's commentary

 "Andrew Seybold"
<andy@4...> wrote: 
>  
>  
> Just some random thoughts

Point 1:

10mhz yields a maximum of 3 CDMA carriers. Assuming no outside
interference.

You lose the extra carrier because it's split in half and used as the
guard band.

Thus 20mhz == 7 carriers, and 30mhz == 11 carriers

A current 1xRTT system yields ~ 30 simultaneous calls per carrier per
sector. Thus a full populated 10mhz site could handle 270 calls. Thats
more than 11 channelized T1s, before compression etc.

This is alot of capacity as is, but with the addition of smart
antennas and the new CDMA handsets that support multiple receiver
diversity, the capacity of this site could exceed 800-1000 calls.

Point 2: 

"4 (really only 3) carriers does not provide enough capacity for a
wireless carrier who only has that amount of spectrum nationwide"
------
This comment is Bullshit.

Currently Sprint uses less than 2 CDMA carriers on average for its
nationwide network of 18m subs.

Also consider that Sprint plus its affiliates carry the same load, ie
MOUs, as does Verizon, even though Verizon has many more subs.

Out of Sprint's over 21,000 cellsites, less than 1% have 3 or more
carriers. In these cases the situation is already handled by the
migration to 1xRTT, or it could be addressed via SOP cell spliting.
Which of course is much easier with a 1:1 reuse factor, or the use of
currently available smart antennas.

Point 3:

I've forgotten, but is this tread still about you piece on how
Cingular should've listened to you and not choosen GSM?

Andy, you may be a good guy and all, but that commentary was so full
of erroneous crap that I just lost interest in pointing out the
problems. 

The choice of which technology to use is way overblown and sometimes
even counter-intuitive. All things being equal Cingular should've
skipped TDMA and gone GSM. That's the most profitable path. But the
past is what it is.

TDMA->GSM didn't kill AWE, poor execution sealed their fate.

I'd like to remind you that first and foremost wireless carriers are
BUSINESSes and not just very large engineering labs masquerading as
businesses.

Finally, Its a huge mistake to think of the Cingular-AWE as a
consolidation play. 

Before the merger, we had 5+1 national carriers, and after the merger
we'll have just 5 national carriers. The '+1' represents Nextel's
almost exclusively non-consumer focus. But with NASCAR and BOOST,
Nextel enters the consumer market in a large way. Much larger than
silly bastards at VZW and PCS with their lame and stupid attempts to
target a entrenched 9% subsegment of the market with a crappy
offering.

So lost in all the BS hype about PTT, the REAL story is that Nextel is
entering the consumer market segment. Now since Nextel already has the
best EBITDA margins, even lower consumer ARPU subs are still very,
very profitable.

We can all debate Nextel's tactics, but the fact remains that N's MGT
is without par in this industry. In a largely scale business, Nextel
has managed to achieve the highest margins and massive FCF with the
smallest subcriber base. Very smart folks.

Cingular bought AWE more to complete its footprint (ie. only ~43 out
of top 50 markets) than to engage in mere consolidation. They were
stuck between being a super-super-super regional and a national
player, a sub-national if you will. 

This merger is the last act of the 'installation' stage of wireless. 

Starting with McCaw's vision of a nationwide carrier, validated by
ATT's buyout, and Sprint's willingness to mortgage everything to enter
the PCS auctions, and finally ending with the RBOC's wireless rollups,
the 'installation' stage of the wireless technology revolution is now
complete. eos.

So after the past 20-30 years we've experienced 3 awesome
technological revolutions.
1) The PC
2) The internet, ie. IP, ethernet, email, http, IM, P2P, RSS, etc.
3) Wireless voice and data networks

Which are all converging. For example, a smartphone is basically a
miniture 486/Pentium PC.

But we must ask ourselves what will happen to the players?
In the wired world we have
a) a local voice monopoly, the ILEC
b) a local video monopoly, the MSO (cable co.)

In the wireless world, we have
a) 5 WSP's facing a Hobbs'ean future of fierce competition and
OVERCAPACITY. (remember MSS, MMDS, 700mhz and 1700mhz are still to
come to market)
b) 2+ Satellite Video, Audio, Voice providers

Consolidation is still a ways off, if ever. For a very long list of
structural reasons its much more likely we'll see some outright
capitulation(ie. Qwest), than rampant consolidation. Its just
economics.

If you are a consumer, the good times will only get better.

 
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