Subject: [v6ops] Fwd: Proposed revised Extension Header text for rfc2460bis

From: Fred Baker <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 29 Apr 2017 23:43:05 -0700

I sent this to 6man, but v6ops might be interested as well.

> From: Fred Baker <[email-masked]>
> Subject: Re: Proposed revised Extension Header text for rfc2460bis
> Date: April 29, 2017 at 11:40:20 PM PDT
> To: Mark Smith <[email-masked]>, Robert Raszuk <[email-masked]>
> Cc: 6man WG <[email-masked]>
> 
> On Apr 29, 2017, at 8:07 PM, Mark Smith <[email-masked]> wrote:
>> On Apr 29, 2017, at 6:45 PM, Robert Raszuk <[email-masked]> wrote:
>>> Maybe it is time to open the windows and ask yourself why IPv6 deployment for end consumers is really not happening (except very local markets like Japan). Maybe IPv6 did not come with suficient reason to be deployed ???
>> 
>> You're out of touch with IPv6 deployment status.
> 
> Robert, you might be interested to poke around on the current status of IPv6 deployment. Here are 36 countries, of which Google says that 5% or more of the traffic from them uses IPv6. Consider the implications of that, if you would; it means that someone had a computer that was attached to a network attached to an ISP attached to another ISP that went to Google to a computer, and every step along the way IPv6 was deployed and working, end to end. 
> 
> https://www.vyncke.org/ipv6status/compare.php?metric=p&countries=be,us,gr,de,ch,lu,in,br,ee,ca,ec,jp,gb,pt,my,fr,tt,no,fi,pe,au,cz,nz,nl,ie,ro,hu,si,zw,gt,pr,kr,vn,sa,at,ax,pl
> 
> That includes countries on every continent, including Zimbabwe in Africa, six Latin American countries, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and India. And, oh yes, Japan. And the US.
> 
> Heck, look at Trinidad and Tobago, a Small Island State in the Caribbean, someone that the UN considers to be seriously back woods. Google says that 15% of the sessions they have in T&T use IPv6, and Akamai says that 20% of the traffic they deliver there uses IPv6. This isn't just the big countries, or the well-connected ones.
> 
> https://www.vyncke.org/ipv6status/project.php?metric=p&country=tt
> https://www.vyncke.org/ipv6status/project.php?metric=k&country=tt
> 
> At F Root, about 11% of our DNS accesses come in IPv6 packets.
> 
> http://rssac-stats.isc.org/rssac002/2017
> 
> Several companies are taking serious steps toward turning IPv4 off, or have already done so. Where is IPv6 dominant? The Mobile networks are among the biggest there.
> 
> https://blog.apnic.net/2017/01/19/ipv6-only-at-microsoft
> https://blog.apnic.net/2017/02/02/addressing-in-2016
> https://blog.apnic.net/2017/02/07/reliance-jio-boosts-india-past-20-ipv6-capability
> https://code.facebook.com/posts/635645183305089/legacy-support-on-ipv6-only-infra
> https://conference.apnic.net/data/37/464xlat-apricot-2014_1393236641.pdf 
> https://www.apnic.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/vzw_apnic_13462152832-2.pdf
> 
> Performance issues that were there historically, largely due to substandard routing, are a bad memory.
> https://blog.apnic.net/2016/08/22/ipv6-performance-revisited
> 
> You might be interested in Uber's viewpoint.
> 
> https://eng.uber.com/ipv6
> 
> "Having deployment problems" isn't a very accurate statement.
> 
> It is fair to say that the deployment started slowly. It started in 2006, with ICANN ratifying a policy for the allocation of IPv6 prefixes, and the limited-IPv6-capability Windows Vista release in the same year (other platforms all had it, Windows was the laggard, and killing off Windows XP has been an quest worthy of Arthur). By 2009, 4000 prefixes had been allocated world-wide. IPv4 exhaustion at IANA was predicted, although there was a lot of discussion between Geoff and Tony, and finally happened in January 2011. April 2011, APNIC entered their final phase of IPv4 allocation (by policy, they now only allocate a /22 to a new member, and none at all to existing members), and at this point all five RIRs are in their final phase of IPv4 allocation. The IPv4 Market Group says that they expect the price of an IPv4 address, which right now varies between about $6 and $15 per address depending on the block size, to start to decline in 2019, because at that point more than half of the users in the world will have functional IPv6 capabilities and it will be in corporate interest to look forward rather than back. Swisscom says that by 2024 they expect they won't have enough IPv4 traffic to justify continuing to route it.
> 
> https://www.icann.org/news/announcement-2006-09-11-en
> https://www.oecd.org/sti/ieconomy/44961688.pdf slide 16
> https://ipv4.potaroo.net/
> http://ipv4marketgroup.com/ipv4-pricing-in-a-post-arin-runout-world
> http://ipv4marketgroup.com/q42016-update
> http://www.ipv6conference.ch/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/B10-Swisscom-Status_Roadmap_and_Outlook_IPv6.pdf
> 
> In other words, it didn't start until the IPv4 address space became exhausted at IANA and the relevant RIRs, which was 100% predictable. At this point, smart companies are starting to use the speculative asset of IPv4 address space to finance their IPv6 deployment, and some companies are starting to charge for IPv4 address space while leaving IPv6 free.
> 
> https://gist.github.com/simonster/e22e50cd52b7dffcf5a4db2b8ea4cce0
> http://www.networkworld.com/article/3191503/internet/mit-selling-8-million-coveted-ipv4-addresses-amazon-a-buyer.html
> https://www.mythic-beasts.com/order/vps
> 
> If you are on a major broadband service in the US and don't have IPv6 in your home (go to http://www.kame.net, and see if the turtle dances), ask your provider about it. There's a good chance the issue is at your residential router.
> 
> You're welcome to your opinions of IPv6; if it were mine to do over there are some things I might change. But it is what it is, and it's out there. Get used to it. Resistance, as they say, is futile.